Streaming Data: The Proof Is in the Ratings

Followers of this blog over the past two years have read about the discovery, analysis and powerful resource that is on-demand streaming data.

When we began to understand the relationship between on-demand streaming data and radio consumption, it didn't take too long to appreciate the fact that programming radio based on actual consumption of the music had incredible potential.

While current-based radio formats benefit greatly from this information, true consumption of library material comes into focus at a time when there is more music to select from than ever before.

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And because we've learned of the true value of long-term "hits", choosing the correct library material is as important as ever.

Prior to the wonderful technology that allows us to finely view weekly, if not daily on-demand streaming consumption, radio programmers relied on use of telephone interviews (call-out research), testing auditoriums full of listeners or sales tracking to try to determine the best songs to play based on popularity.

This was a good approach considering it was all we had, but studying sales doesn't provide insight to actual listening once the CD or digital file was purchased.

“We are seeing marked (ratings) results for CHR, Alternative, Country, AC, Hot AC and Urban formats.”

Observing a room full of listeners marking their responses on paper to seven second hooks of songs the stations would choose, did provide some insight into how listeners related to songs they were familiar with but did not reflect actual consumption of those songs.

Today with the advanced capabilities of the technology, Bridge Ratings has been helping its on-demand streaming clients hone their on-air music presentation so that it better mirrors true listener interest and listening.

And now - after more than a year of field use -  empirical results in the form of audience ratings is proving in over 90% of the use cases that all things being equal, shifting to a on-demand music streaming programming approach yields increased audience primarily through a) increased listening occasions and b) longer time spent listening.

As one of our clients uttered after receiving ratings results for the three stations using this approach this past January, "this s**t works!"

As you might have guessed, on-demand streaming research is wildly beneficial to current-based formats.

We are seeing marked results for CHR, Alternative, Country, AC, Hot AC and Urban formats.

The trick is how to use this data when realigning music lists.

Some of our clients use the data as a "guide" and shape their lists weekly or daily at music meetings. The result is progressive audience growth.

Then there are our clients who have used the data long enough to trust it implicitly and program their music as a true reflection of the streaming chart - song for song. For these clients the results have been much more dramatic.

Remarkably, the music industry has been slower to utilize this technology to further define their marketing and promotions strategies.

Each week, I see songs that have very high or extremely high consumption metrics on our on-demand streaming charts that stations are not playing.

When asked why this is, one of my programming clients responded with "I'm not playing it because the record label hasn't serviced us with it yet!"

Remarkable.

We've tested compatibility, correlations to sales, MScores and requests and long-term music preference among all demographics.

Through the numerous posts on this site and others over the past two years, we have urged the radio and record industries to move more fully into use of on-demand streaming data. Because it reflects true music consumption by its customers, why not use it?

There is no doubt now that the local DMA streaming data we provide stations is yielding more listener loyalty and more frequent tune-in contributing to improved audience numbers.

As a programmer or label rep, if on-demand streaming data as a research tool is not for you, please use the response form below to help us understand why.

More conversation will likely yield better understanding.

 

Podcasting At a Crossroads - The Blog

On January 26, 2016, Bridge Ratings published its latest research on - "Podcasting at a Crossroads".  If you haven't seen it, I encourage you to take a quick look.

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The bottom line of the study was this: Podcasts have such tremendous potential yet its download model fails to provide the platform’s potential - audience growth, ad revenue and value.

The research piece offers a solution to this: streaming rather than podcasting will provide a more comfortable process for listeners and a more reliable way for advertisers to reach their consumers.

We received a good amount of response from this study, particularly from podcasters who seem to be split on the idea of changing the model from downloads to streaming.

I was contacted by Rob Greenlee of Spreaker, a podcast professional with years of experience in this space. Rob produces two podcasts worth a listen: "The New Media Show" and the Spreaker Live Show.

 

Rob invited me to his Spreaker Live Show and we discussed the findings of this study. if you are a podcaster, this conversation is worth your time.  It is Rob's opinion that the idea of streaming podcasts vs. downloading them is very controversial; one that the industry has been dealing with for some time now.

It seems the podcast community is split on the industry's distribution future.

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During the discussion Rob brought up many good reasons why the download model works and he asked what my thought was on how the industry could best transition to a streaming model.

These were my thoughts:

1. Use cases for podcasts vary. Consumers tend to like the fact that there is little data consumption, though downloading an hour long podcast can consume a lot of memory on smartphones or tablets. Podcasts are popular for travelers on airplanes which generally do not allow for streaming activity. Other uses are preferred based on the environment or lifestyle of the listener.

2. Streaming offers flexibility to podcasters, i.e. offering a combination of download and streaming of the same content is putting the programming wherever the listener is. The highly popular podcast "Serial" now in its second season, managed a million downloads last year and awareness for the platform exploded as much as it did for its very engaging content.

This year, for season two, the folks at "Serial" have also partnered with Pandora which accomplishes two or three major advances. a) The "Serial" podcast is now exposed to millions more users of Pandora and with Pandora's metrics, the "Serial" podcast offers advertisers much more granular data about the listeners thus increasing the program's value.

“(The “Serial”) model, we believe, is the transition solution...and is the next step in moving podcasting to a more measureable mass audience.”

b) The Pandora piece now offers listeners a unique consumption behavior which we have observed through our research. Listeners could start to listen to the "Serial" podcast on their desktop PCs while at work or at home then stop when need arises and be continued via download on a mobile device. Pandora's application allows users to pick up where they left off making this behavioral shift quite easy.

This model, we believe, is the transition solution Rob and I were discussing and is the next step in moving podcasting to a more measureable mass audience.

Podcasting is at a crossroads. Because there is no overriding governing podcasting organization like the National Association of Broadcasters, any transition to a streaming model will likely occur naturally with individual podcasters taking steps that they are comfortable with.

Unfortunately, this approach will continue the slow growth of the industry.

Most podcasters may not see the benefit of streaming or offering a dual-track platform as described above. The metric improvement for advertising may not apply to their particular need.

Yet there are many podcasts that generate significant audiences and generating revenue is a natural outcome and need for them. The dual-track platform idea makes real sense to them in all likelihood.

So, there's a model usage case that has been proven by "Serial" and Pandora. The thousands of producers of podcast content will have to decide what is best for them. But as our study expresses, the potential for huge growth in 2016 and beyond is significant and whether or not advertising dollars are important to podcasters, there is no denying that the number of people listening will be greatly increased through a streaming model and that alone, perhaps, is reason enough.

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Can Cumulus Media Be Fixed?

The shakeup in management at Cumulus Media this week is the first step toward the work required to revive this company, but the real question is can Cumulus be saved?  After years of mishandling and misreading the marketing place, is Cumulus capable of getting back some of its mojo?

There's certainly a lot of work to do and a good place to start to determine a to-do list for new CEO Mary Berner for her radio stations is the very useful marketing book by Ries & Trout "The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing".  http://www.slideshare.net/yousufrafi/the-22-immutablelawsofmarketing

Let's take a look at a few of their applicable laws:

The Law of Leadership - It's better to be first than it is to be better.

With the purchase of Citadel's major market stations a few years ago, Cumulus had a built-in advantage for this law. It inherited many major stations that were first in their category. Over the years many of these stations have atrophied and have given away their positions. So, what to do?

This leads to the next Law.

The Law of Category - If you can't be first in a category, set up a new category you can be first in.

This is a difficult one, especially with regards to the major Talk stations like WABC, KGO and KABC in the Cumulus family. This Law may be easier to approach with the company's struggling music stations that have fallen to second or third in their categories.

Yet this is important because of the Law of the Mind:

The Law of the Mind - It is better to be first in the mind than it is to be first in the marketplace.

Remington Rand may have been first to the marketplace with its UNIVAC computer years ago, but through massive marketing IBM got into the mind first and at the time, won the category.

Bridge Ratings has been working with some new technology and research methods this year to focus in on a different radio/brand metric. Internally, we call it the HABIT METRIC and it goes hand-in-hand with brand longevity but it goes deeper to include core listener needs, how well listeners are being served and satisfied relevant to the brand and what, if anything, would be required to shake brand confidence.

These brand factors are central to what many of Cumulus' stations are dealing with.

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In a fielded study in one of the top three markets, Bridge Ratings found that the 'embedded format leader' was hitting 9 out of 10 of the brand confidence factors with its primary listeners most of the time. To shake this station's 'brand confidence' would take not only a strong competitor with a significant marketing arsenal, but a list of mistakes and programming miscues over a long period of time which would eventually wear away at the long-established brand confidence nurtured and created.

 The second entry in the market, a Cumulus station, has spent two years reworking the on-air product and station image.  Once the top station in its format category it had lost its way but was once again doing a lot of programming components properly and delivering a very good product. However, the station has been unable to recover the brand confidence it once had with its listeners that are being shared with the market leader in that format.

Why? No listeners were sampling the station, so they didn't know the station was making a concerted effort at satisfying their needs.

While marketing is a battle of perceptions (another Ries & Trout Law), the uphill battle for Cumulus is restoring a positive perception for their stations that have lost their position in the minds of listeners.

The Law of the Ladder - There is a hierarchy in the minds of consumers that they use to make decisions. There is a different "ladder" for each product/service.  On each rung is a brand name.

“The uphill battle for Cumulus is restoring a positive perception for their stations that have lost their position in the minds of listeners.”
— Dave Van Dyke

In radio people who listen to radio stations have a ladder in their minds that has been built over time of usage and marketing. This has only been complicated in recent years by all of the audio options available but an argument could be made that there is a separate ladder in the mind for broadcast radio and another for other forms of audio listening.

Favorite stations are at the top of this Radio ladder. Less used stations are further down the ladder and, in the case of many Cumulus stations, once-favorited stations that have broken the brand promise have dropped off the ladder and no longer occupy a rung.

Once this happens, listeners forget you're even there.  How does a broadcaster earn a place on the ladder?

This is at the heart of the question of whether Cumulus can revive itself. Marketing - and tons of it - along with improved on-air programming is the only way to restore brand confidence inmarkets where, frankly, there is just too much competition.

In the market study described above, the Cumulus station has improved its on-air programming to the point where the few heavily loyal station listeners give it a grade of 80% or better at satisfying their needs based on the format. This is a good number but that isn't enough.

In order to return the station to a position that would garner better ratings and revenue, it would take significant marketing dollars over an extended period of time to place the station on one of the few "rungs" on the radio ladder.

The Bridge Ratings metric we use to describe this facet of brand recovery is called "Brand Support". The Brand Support metric is calculated using current market costs for common marketing strategies (TV, Billboards, etc) and comparing those costs with those of ratings-effective campaigns in the market in the past. Analysis of the effectiveness of these campaigns for various formats yields some helpful insight.

The metric is percentage. For example, a "Brand Support" number of 80% would suggest that it would take 80% of the most successful marketing campaign in the market's history for a similarly formatted radio station to achieve minimally 30% listener growth.

In the case of the Cumulus market discussed here, the "Brand Support" percentage required was over 400%. And in today's climate, that is likely not possible especially when one considers Cumulus resources and how many of their stations and how many markets are in need of repair.

It's possible that Ms. Berner and her team may find they can resurrect a handful of important major market stations with this strategy, but even that won't be enough.

The programming issues faced with many Cumulus stations can be fixed or have already been addressed by the hiring of some of our industry's most talented programmers.

The challenge is to change perception in the mind of the consumer and based on some initial findings, the hill is too steep and rich to climb.

Dave Van Dyke, President

Bridge Ratings Founder and President Dave Van Dyke’s extensive and varied experience in media has captured every facet of radio and Internet audience engagement.  In radio, he has worked in a diverse array of positions including programming, management, sales, on-air, marketing and research for CBS, Infinity, ABC, Nokia and Westinghouse.  Through his work with Bridge Ratings Dave is widely recognized for his ability to forecast and gauge media consumption across multiple platforms and to utilize field data to advise his clients. He is also known for his management of radio station rebuilding successes, taking underperforming radio properties and turning them into high cash-flowing corporate contributors.

Dave's work in music consumption behavior through on-demand streaming data has exposed a number of fallacies radio programmers have long-held to be truisms related to how radio listeners consume music both on-line and on-air. Through his consulting relationships with many Bridge Ratings clients, Dave has helped stations properly retune their approach to music exposure to better reflect true consumption.