Shards of glass: Inside media's 12 splintering realities

Special kudos to today’s contributors:

• Jim VandeHei,

• Mike Allen

You can't understand November's election — or America itself — without reckoning with how our media attention has shattered into a bunch of misshapen pieces.

• Think of it as the shards of glass phenomenon. Not long ago, we all saw news and information through a few common windows — TV, newspapers, cable. Now we find it in scattered chunks that match our age, habits, politics and passions.

Why it matters: Traditional media, at least as a center of dominant power, is dead. Social media, as its replacement for news in the internet era, is declining in dominance.

What comes next: America is splintering into more than a dozen news bubbles based on ideology, wealth, jobs, age and location.

• This means where you get your news, the voices you trust, and even the topics and cultural figures you follow could be wholly different from the person sitting next to you.

• So instead of Red America and Blue America, we'll have a dozen or more Americas — and realities. This will make understanding public opinion, and finding common agreement, even more complex and elusive.

Disclaimer: No, this doesn't mean The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal or CNN are dead. It just means their influence will wane with most people in the other bubbles. Nor does it mean Facebook and Twitter will lose relevance. They simply will be influential in tighter bubbles.

To help get your head around this shift, we'll generalize in describing some of today's most powerful bubbles (which are of widely varying sizes). We talked to influencers left, right and center; media executives; political operatives; C-suite executives and more. What we found:

1. The Musk-eteers: This is a fast-growing, mostly male group who feed off Twitter, podcasts (especially "All-In" and Joe Rogan), and follow independent reporters, led by Bari Weiss, through social media or newsletters.

2. Instagrammers: This is mostly young to middle-aged women in college and the professional class. They're very engaged with this more visual form of journalism, and gravitate toward influential voices in the creator economy — including Jessica Yellin (New Not Noise), Betches News, Emily in Your Phone (former Democratic strategist Emily Amick) and Sharon Says So (Sharon McMahon, an educator who does history and civics explainers).

3. TikTok kids: This is where most kids get most of their information about the world and hot news topics. They scroll, fast and furious, through pictures and microbursts of information — and trust people most parents have never heard of. Think MrBeast, Addison Rae and Zach King.

4. New-age grandmas: Consumers of news on Facebook have been trending older. Yes, Facebook has deliberately deemphasized news over the past three years, emphasizing what Meta global affairs president Nick Clegg calls"babies, barbecues and bar mitzvahs." But a lot remains.

5. Right-wing grandpas: Senior citizens, especially men, still flock to Fox News — especially in prime time, and especially around popular personalities. They would have been big Rush Limbaugh fans back in the '90s.

6. MAGA mind melders: The new conservative news ecosystem would seem like a distant planet to anyone whose habits were formed pre-Trump. People like Charlie Kirk (massive because he's multiplatform), Jack Posobiec and Mike Cernovich are dominant voices. Then there are folks who are taken seriously only in Trumpworld (Laura Loomer, Alex Bruesewitz), but can really move the needle there. No one rivals Tucker Carlson with the base, even without his Fox News platform. Don Jr. is second, with his massive X, Facebook and Instagram engagement. "He's the meme lord of the right," a MAGA insider told us. Steve Bannon's WarRoom remains a juggernaut. Breitbart's Matt Boyle is a go-to newsbreaker on the right. Plus there's a potent crew of video clip guys.

7. Liberal warriors: Think of Rachel Maddowas patron saint of this bloc. Hence her sky-high ratings. This crowd feeds daily off The New York Times (especially opinion pieces) and prestige magazines (especially The Atlantic and The New Yorker). They once were addicted to Twitter but left, or lessened their dependency, after Musk turned it into X.

8. Elite power-consumers: This is the Axios base. These are mainly college-educated, ambitious professionals — we estimate 25 million-45 million nationally — who seek out news near-daily, partly for passion and partly for professional enhancement. This group is most likely to overlap with other bubbles and lap up "Morning Joe." These power-users are huge fans of newsletters, which in some respects mimic in shrunken form newspapers: a beginning and end, punctuated with pictures and visuals. LinkedIn is a hot, if still small, pipeline for content.

9. The financiers: This is the base of The Wall Street Journal, CNBC (especially "Squawk Box") and DealBook, the newsletter by New York Times and "Squawk" star Andrew Ross Sorkin. Lots of rich, white, older East Coast or big-city professionals live here.

10. Niche-ers: These are professionals who exploit the abundance of high-quality, in-the-weeds news about their job, industry or specific role. The internet is Nirvana for ones who know who to follow, what newsletters to get, and what specialty pubs to buy. This is often a subset of elites. Reddit is a hotbed. WhatsApp is also a shard/bubble: A huge number of people, especially immigrants and people with family and friends in other countries, get news and memes from WhatsApp groups — which can be a big conduit of misinformation.

11. Emerging majority: There are upwardly mobile, college-educated Latinos and Black Americans who no longer have Black or bilingual publications to read. They've turned their attention to trusted journalists in mainstream outlets such as NPR TV critic Eric Deggans and L.A. Times metro columnist Gustavo Arellano to make sense of the world. Also, they turn to Black and Latino influencers around tech (Marques Brownlee), financial planning (Yanely Espinal) and fashion (Black in Fashion Council).

12. Passive-ists. On most days, this might be the biggest group. It's people either too busy or too disinterested in news to hunt for it. They bump into it, often accidentally, as they chat or buy things — or scroll through fun stuff.

The bottom line: All the shards mean it's much more effort for you, the consumer, to find healthy news that doesn't waste your time or insult your intelligence. And much harder to make sense of the realities around you.

• Sara Fischer, Russell Contreras and Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

Call-out vs Music Streaming Research. Why are there Discrepancies?

Music Programmers Ponder the discrepancies between traditional “call-out” research and music streaming

Let’s delve into why these differences occur:

* Nature of Data Collection:

* Call-Out Research: In traditional call-out research, participants are asked to evaluate songs based on short clips or snippets. They provide feedback on whether they like or dislike the song, its catchiness, and other subjective aspects.

* Streaming Consumption Research: Streaming platforms collect data passively as users listen to full songs. This data includes play counts, skip rates, and user behavior over extended periods.

* Sampling Bias:

* Call-Out Research: Participants in call-out studies may not represent the entire listener population. Their preferences might not align with the broader audience.

* Streaming Consumption Research: Streaming data reflects actual behavior across diverse demographics, providing a more comprehensive view of what people actually listen to.

* Context and Intent:

* Call-Out Research: Participants evaluate songs in isolation, without considering real-world contexts (e.g., mood, activity, social setting).

* Streaming Consumption Research: Users stream music during various activities (commuting, working out, relaxing), which influences their choices. Streaming data captures this context.

* Sampling Duration:

* Call-Out Research: Participants hear short clips, often less than 30 seconds. Their preferences might change when listening to the full song.

* Streaming Consumption Research: Full-length song plays provide a more accurate representation of listener preferences.

* Recency Bias:

* Call-Out Research: Participants evaluate new songs, which may lead to a bias toward novelty.

* Streaming Consumption Research: Streaming data includes both new releases and older tracks, reflecting long-term popularity.

* Social Influence:

* Call-Out Research: Participants’ opinions may be influenced by perceived social norms or expectations.

* Streaming Consumption Research: Users choose songs independently, without external pressure.

* Algorithmic Recommendations:

* Streaming Consumption Research: Algorithms recommend songs based on user history, leading to personalized playlists. This influences consumption patterns.

* Call-Out Research: Doesn’t account for personalized recommendations.

* Radio Airplay and Repetition:

* Radio Stations: They often play songs repeatedly to maintain familiarity and audience retention. This practice can inflate airplay metrics.

* Streaming Services: User-driven choices determine play counts, reducing repetition bias.

* Monetary Incentives:

* Streaming Platforms: Artists earn royalties based on streams, incentivizing users to explore diverse content.

* Radio Stations: Airplay doesn’t directly impact artist earnings, so they may stick to safe, familiar songs.

* Industry Practices and Tradition:

* Radio: Legacy practices and programming traditions influence song selection.

* Streaming: Disrupts traditional models, allowing for greater diversity.

In summary, while call-out research provides valuable insights, streaming consumption data offers a more holistic view of music preferences. Radio stations, however, continue to balance tradition, audience expectations, and commercial interests when choosing songs for airplay12.

2024 -The Year of Gen Alpha

It's the only generation born fully in the 21st century: the oldest are about 13, and the youngest will be born in the coming year.

The big picture: Enter Generation Alpha, the first entirely online cohort. Its members have grappled with a climate crisis and pandemic — and can spend money more easily at their age than even their savviest close elders.

• Seen as "a landmark generation," Gen Alpha — born between 2010 and 2024 — is expected to be the largest in history at more than 2 billion people, per Mark McCrindle, a social researcher who coined "Generation Alpha" and determined its bounds.

• Mostly the children of millennials, their immediate predecessors belong to Gen Z, who could overtake Baby Boomers in the workplace in 2024, per Glassdoor.

• This generation is still being born (plus "generation" framing itself is always under revision), so Alpha's future impact isn't yet totally known. But existing indicators are already too big to ignore.

Growing up online

The intrigue: The youngest members of Gen Alpha — whose oldest members were born after Apple had already iterated on the iPhone — have been dubbed "iPad kids."

• Its oldest members happened to be born the year the iPad debuted.

These kids also have TikTok as a growing platform of choice. Unlike millennials' pre-algorithm Facebook, TikTok repeatedly exposes users to anyone and everyone, rather than just networks of friends and family.

• "Anyone can go viral at any moment," MaryLeigh Bliss, the chief content officer at YPulse, told Axios.

By the numbers: Millennial parents are giving kids their first smartphones at about 9 years old, Bliss said.

• 79% of millennial parents said their kids are on social media, per YPulse.

• 44% of millennial parents said their kids watch video content on a smartphone at least weekly, per YPulse.

Quick take: "They're having a media-centric childhood in a way that is different because of the kinds of media they're interacting with from incredibly young ages," Bliss said.

As for artificial intelligence, Siri and Alexa have been in their parents' pockets or homes for most of their lives.

• Tech like ChatGPT is being used in schools as a learning tool.

• "Alpha have only ever known a world of the blurring of AI and the human," McCrindle said.

Defining event: COVID-19 pandemic

COVID cemented online interaction as a norm for kids.

• They attended virtual school, and a larger share of parents now work from home as a byproduct of the pandemic.

Threat level: Metrics of learning and success in education have taken significant hits since 2020.

• Test score results across subject matters have decreased, and student absenteeism has soared.

Social connections and behavior have suffered too, said Tori Cordiano, a child and adolescent psychologist.

• "Many of them were not in school at all in person, and many of them took much longer to come back consistently," she said. "We're now seeing the holdover effects."

• "They just haven't had as much practice" making friends and being exposed to new environments, Cordiano said.

Yes, but: Youth know how to make connections online, for better or for worse.

• 43% of millennial parents say their kids have had a virtual playdate or hung out with friends in virtual spaces, per YPulse. (Not just on Zoom — Minecraft playdates are a thing.)

• Ideally, those online ties "translate into meaningful, ongoing and hopefully in-person relationships," Cordiano said.

Developing consumer habits and purchasing power

Brands are already targeting youth with marketing.

Zoom in: Companies are reaching children on social media such as TikTok and YouTube, often through influencers, said Jennifer Mapes-Christ, a market researcher at The Freedonia Group.

• "It allows different types of people to see themselves in the products in a way they maybe didn't before," she said.

Reality check: The older kids in the age group are still nearing the legal working age. But they're starting to have financial liberties.

• Children and teens have access to payment apps, debit cards and driving services — all made for youth.

Born during the hottest years on record

Flashback: In 2010, the combined land and ocean surface temperature tied with 2005 as the warmest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Now, 2010 is the 10th warmest year on record.

• 2023, meanwhile, is set to be the hottest year.

Zoom out: Anxiety about social issues overall, including the climate, is rising in youth, per Cordiano.

• Kids are having a hard time disconnecting from torrents of information, causing "higher risk for burnout for the things that are important to them," she said.

• In a survey, 87% of 13-15-year-olds agreed that it is up to their generation to stop climate change from worsening, per YPulse.

The bottom line: Gen Alpha is entrenched in social and political spheres.

• Members have expressed care in ending racism and alleviating poverty, regardless of their own experiences, according to research from McCrindle's firm.

• "Alphas bring a sense of empathy because they are connected globally to the issues of their world," McCrindle said.